1. Executive Summary
1. 执行摘要
A cautious, uneven recovery is a plausible outlook, rather than an established timetable. September sales were 11.6% lower than a year earlier while available stock was 10.7% higher. These conditions support buyer choice and limit near-term pricing power.
谨慎且分化的复苏是可能情景，而不是已经确定的时间表。9月成交量同比下降11.6%，在售库存同比增加10.7%，买方选择充足，短期涨价能力受到约束。
Stabilisation in 2027 and a modest recovery in 2028 depend on improving employment, purchasing power and stock absorption. The Auckland paths below are illustrative assumptions from the supplied research note; they are not official forecasts or probability estimates.
2027年企稳、2028年温和回升，取决于就业、购买力及库存消化改善。下文奥克兰路径沿用所提供研究底稿的示意假设，不是官方预测，也没有赋予概率。
2. 2026 Market Evidence
2. 2026年市场证据
| Measure | Value | Year-on-year | Reference period / source |
|---|---|---|---|
| National median sale price | NZ$755,000 | -2.3% | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| National sales | 5,752 | -11.6% | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| National inventory | 34,001 | +10.7% | Listing stock · Sep 2026 |
| Median days to sell | 46 days | +3 days | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| Auckland median sale price | — | -2.6% | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| Auckland inventory | 13,958 | +13.8% | realestate.co.nz · Sep 2026 |
| 指标 | 数值 | 同比 | 统计期／来源 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 全国成交中位价 | NZ$755,000 | -2.3% | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| 全国成交量 | 5,752 | -11.6% | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| 全国在售库存 | 34,001 | +10.7% | Listing stock · Sep 2026 |
| 中位成交周期 | 46天 | +3天 | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| 奥克兰成交中位价 | — | -2.6% | REINZ · Sep 2026 |
| 奥克兰在售库存 | 13,958 | +13.8% | realestate.co.nz · Sep 2026 |
REINZ September release and listing data. The Auckland median amount is left blank because it has not been confirmed here. Sale medians, listing prices and valuation indices measure different things.
REINZ 9月发布及挂牌资料。奥克兰成交中位价金额本报告尚未确认，保留空缺。成交中位价、挂牌价及估值指数不能混用。
3. What Could Change the Outlook
3. 影响前景的关键因素
Interest rates and inflation
利率与通胀
The OCR was raised to 2.75% on 2 September; annual CPI inflation was 4.1% in the June quarter. The RBNZ says the future OCR path is not predetermined. Persistent inflation could keep finance expensive; easing inflation and stronger incomes could improve affordability. Fixed mortgage rates also reflect wholesale funding conditions.
9月2日OCR上调至2.75%；6月季度年度CPI为4.1%。央行明确未来OCR路径尚未确定。通胀持续可能维持高融资成本；通胀回落及收入改善可能恢复购买力。固定房贷利率还受批发融资条件影响。
Supply and stock absorption
供应与库存消化
Stats NZ records 41,268 homes consented nationally in the year to August, including 17,264 in Auckland. Consents signal a pipeline, not completed or sold homes. Supply pressure depends on when projects finish and whether buyers absorb them.
Stats NZ截至8月年度全国住宅许可41,268套，奥克兰17,264套。许可反映供应管线，不等于已经完工或成交。压力取决于交付时点及销售吸收能力。
Auckland’s consented pipeline by dwelling type
奥克兰已获批住宅：潜在供应的房型结构
| Dwelling type | Year to Aug 2026 | Share | Annual YoY | Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand-alone houses | 6,376 | 36.9% | +38.5% | 645 |
| Townhouses, flats, and units | 9,218 | 53.4% | +15.7% | 707 |
| Apartments | 1,276 | 7.4% | -23.6% | 19 |
| Retirement village units | 394 | 2.3% | +52.1% | 9 |
| Total | 17,264 | 100.0% | +19.1% | 1,380 |
| 房屋类型 | 截至8月年度获批套数 | 占比 | 年度同比 | 8月单月套数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 独栋住宅 | 6,376 | 36.9% | +38.5% | 645 |
| 联排住宅、flats及units（合并口径） | 9,218 | 53.4% | +15.7% | 707 |
| 公寓 | 1,276 | 7.4% | -23.6% | 19 |
| 退休村住宅 | 394 | 2.3% | +52.1% | 9 |
| 合计 | 17,264 | 100.0% | +19.1% | 1,380 |
Source: Stats NZ August 2026 workbook, Tables 3–4, released 1 October. Counts are dwelling units, not the number of consent applications. Annual figures cover the 12 months to August; the last column is August alone.
来源：Stats NZ 2026年8月工作簿，表3–4，10月1日发布。数量为住宅套数，不是许可申请数量；年度列为截至8月的12个月，末列为8月单月。
Townhouses, flats and units account for 53.4% of this pipeline, compared with 36.9% for stand-alone houses. This warrants closer scrutiny of competing attached-home supply, but the official combined category cannot isolate townhouses or two- versus three-bedroom homes. Apartments and retirement village units have different buyer and occupancy markets and should not be treated as interchangeable stock.
联排、flats及units合计占潜在供应53.4%，独栋占36.9%，因此应重点核查同类附连住宅的竞争供应。但官方合并分类不能单独识别联排，也无法区分两房和三房；公寓与退休村住宅的买家及入住市场不同，不宜视为可互换房源。
These are newly consented homes during a period, not a count of all approved but unbuilt homes at the cutoff. Some may already be completed, rented or presold; others may be delayed or never built. Do not add 17,264 directly to current listings or label it guaranteed 2027–2028 supply. Delivery also depends on starts, financing, construction times, cancellations and demolitions. The net addition to housing stock may therefore differ from gross consents.
这些是统计期内新增获批住宅，不是截止日全部“已批未建”住宅存量。部分可能已经完工、出租或预售，部分可能延迟或未实施。因此不能将17,264套直接加到当前挂牌库存，也不能称其必将在2027–2028年交付。实际入市还取决于开工、融资、工期、取消及拆除；净住房增量可能不同于获批总套数。
Employment, migration and household incomes
就业、移民与家庭收入
| Migration measure | Year to Aug 2026 | Year to Aug 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Migrant arrivals | 134,600 ±1,200 | — |
| Migrant departures | 114,100 ±1,100 | — |
| Net migration | +20,500 ±1,500 | +9,200 ±200 |
| Non-NZ citizens: net migration | +58,800 | +49,000 |
| NZ citizens: net migration | −38,200 | −39,900 |
| 移民指标 | 截至2026年8月年度 | 截至2025年8月年度 |
|---|---|---|
| 长期移民入境 | 134,600 ±1,200 | — |
| 长期移民离境 | 114,100 ±1,100 | — |
| 净移民 | +20,500 ±1,500 | +9,200 ±200 |
| 非新西兰公民净移民 | +58,800 | +49,000 |
| 新西兰公民净移民 | −38,200 | −39,900 |
August alone recorded 10,200 migrant arrivals and 8,000 departures, a net gain of 2,200 ±900, compared with 1,600 ±100 in August 2025. The table above uses rolling annual totals, not August alone. Source: Stats NZ, International migration: August 2026, released 14 October 2026.
8月单月长期移民入境10,200人、离境8,000人，净增2,200 ±900人；上年8月净增1,600 ±100人。上表为滚动年度数据，不是8月单月。来源：Stats NZ，2026年8月国际移民发布，2026年10月14日发布。
These are provisional national estimates. The ± figures are 95% model confidence intervals, not limits on future revisions; rounded citizenship components may not sum exactly to the total. Annual net inflows support occupancy demand, but do not establish Auckland-specific demand or prove price growth. Household formation, incomes, visa status, geographic distribution and new supply determine how migration translates into renting or buying.
以上为全国临时估计；±表示95%模型置信区间，不是未来修订幅度的上限，公民身份分项四舍五入后可能与总数不完全相加一致。年度净流入支撑居住需求，但不能直接代表奥克兰需求，也不能证明房价上涨；家庭形成、收入、签证、落脚地区及新增供应决定其如何转化为租房或购房需求。
Stable employment and population inflows support occupancy demand. Purchase demand additionally requires income, deposits and credit access. A recovery should be judged through transactions and purchasing power together, not interest rates alone.
就业稳定及人口流入支撑居住需求；购房还需要收入、首付和信贷支持。复苏应同时观察成交与购买力，不能只看利率。
4. Auckland: Regional Differences
4. 奥克兰区域分化
| Area | Average sale price | Price YoY | Sales | Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern SuburbsListed suburbs: Ellerslie, Glen Innes, Glendowie, Kohimarama, Meadowbank, Mount Wellington, Orakei, Panmure, Parnell, Point England, Remuera, Saint Heliers, Stonefields | NZ$1,434,238 | -9.6% | 75 | +2.7% |
| Pakuranga / HowickListed suburbs: Beachlands, Botany Downs, Bucklands Beach, Burswood, Farm Cove, Flat Bush, Half Moon Bay, Highland Park, Howick, Mellons Bay, Northpark, Pakuranga, Pakuranga Heights, Sunnyhills | NZ$1,220,008 | -6.3% | 73 | -36.0% |
| Central Auckland EastListed suburbs: Epsom, Greenlane, Hillsborough, Lynfield, Mount Eden, Mount Roskill, New Windsor, Onehunga, Royal Oak, Sandringham, Three Kings | NZ$1,288,116 | -3.5% | 57 | -16.2% |
| North ShoreListed suburbs: Albany, Bayview, Beach Haven, Belmont, Birkdale, Birkenhead, Browns Bay, Devonport, Forrest Hill, Glenfield, Greenhithe, Hauraki, Hillcrest, Mairangi Bay, Milford, Murrays Bay, Northcote, Northcross, Oteha, Pinehill, Rothesay Bay, Sunnynook, Takapuna, Torbay, Totara Vale, Unsworth Heights, Windsor Park | NZ$1,184,694 | -5.5% | 108 | -31.6% |
| Central AucklandListed suburbs: City Centre, Wynyard Quarter | NZ$723,400 | +48.9% Small sample: 20 sales; average-price change, not like-for-like appreciation. | 20 | -23.1% |
| Central Auckland WestListed suburbs: Freemans Bay, Grey Lynn, Mount Albert, Point Chevalier, Westmere | NZ$1,278,444 | -7.8% | 27 | -3.6% |
| Franklin/Manukau RuralListed suburbs: Awhitu, Kingseat, Paerata, Pokeno, Pukekohe, Tuakau, Waiuku | NZ$957,251 | -3.2% | 47 | -19.0% |
| Islands of the GulfNo suburb list published in the September suburb report. | — | — | 0 | -100.0% |
| RodneyListed suburbs: Gulf Harbour, Helensville, Huapai, Manly, Milldale, Millwater, Orewa, Red Beach, Silverdale, Stanmore Bay, Warkworth | NZ$1,205,171 | +5.9% | 58 | -18.3% |
| South AucklandListed suburbs: Clendon Park, Clover Park, Conifer Grove, East Tamaki, Favona, Karaka, Mangere, Mangere Bridge, Mangere East, Manurewa, Manurewa East, Opaheke, Otahuhu, Otara, Papakura, Papatoetoe, Randwick Park, Red Hill, Rosehill, Takanini, Wattle Downs, Weymouth, Wiri | NZ$836,025 | +5.7% | 176 | -36.2% |
| West AucklandListed suburbs: Avondale, Blockhouse Bay, Glen Eden, Glendene, Green Bay, Henderson, Hobsonville, Kelston, Laingholm, Massey, New Lynn, Ranui, Sunnyvale, Swanson, Te Atatu Peninsula, Te Atatu South, Titirangi, West Harbour, Westgate | NZ$951,087 | +3.1% | 132 | -7.0% |
| 区域 | 平均成交价 | 价格同比 | 成交套数 | 成交同比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 东部城区该月表列社区：Ellerslie, Glen Innes, Glendowie, Kohimarama, Meadowbank, Mount Wellington, Orakei, Panmure, Parnell, Point England, Remuera, Saint Heliers, Stonefields | NZ$1,434,238 | -9.6% | 75 | +2.7% |
| Pakuranga／Howick该月表列社区：Beachlands, Botany Downs, Bucklands Beach, Burswood, Farm Cove, Flat Bush, Half Moon Bay, Highland Park, Howick, Mellons Bay, Northpark, Pakuranga, Pakuranga Heights, Sunnyhills | NZ$1,220,008 | -6.3% | 73 | -36.0% |
| 奥克兰中心东部该月表列社区：Epsom, Greenlane, Hillsborough, Lynfield, Mount Eden, Mount Roskill, New Windsor, Onehunga, Royal Oak, Sandringham, Three Kings | NZ$1,288,116 | -3.5% | 57 | -16.2% |
| 北岸该月表列社区：Albany, Bayview, Beach Haven, Belmont, Birkdale, Birkenhead, Browns Bay, Devonport, Forrest Hill, Glenfield, Greenhithe, Hauraki, Hillcrest, Mairangi Bay, Milford, Murrays Bay, Northcote, Northcross, Oteha, Pinehill, Rothesay Bay, Sunnynook, Takapuna, Torbay, Totara Vale, Unsworth Heights, Windsor Park | NZ$1,184,694 | -5.5% | 108 | -31.6% |
| 奥克兰中心城区该月表列社区：City Centre, Wynyard Quarter | NZ$723,400 | +48.9% 仅20套成交：小样本均价波动，不代表同类房屋升值幅度。 | 20 | -23.1% |
| 奥克兰中心西部该月表列社区：Freemans Bay, Grey Lynn, Mount Albert, Point Chevalier, Westmere | NZ$1,278,444 | -7.8% | 27 | -3.6% |
| Franklin／Manukau乡村该月表列社区：Awhitu, Kingseat, Paerata, Pokeno, Pukekohe, Tuakau, Waiuku | NZ$957,251 | -3.2% | 47 | -19.0% |
| 海湾岛屿9月社区报告未公布此片区的社区明细。 | — | — | 0 | -100.0% |
| Rodney该月表列社区：Gulf Harbour, Helensville, Huapai, Manly, Milldale, Millwater, Orewa, Red Beach, Silverdale, Stanmore Bay, Warkworth | NZ$1,205,171 | +5.9% | 58 | -18.3% |
| 南奥克兰该月表列社区：Clendon Park, Clover Park, Conifer Grove, East Tamaki, Favona, Karaka, Mangere, Mangere Bridge, Mangere East, Manurewa, Manurewa East, Opaheke, Otahuhu, Otara, Papakura, Papatoetoe, Randwick Park, Red Hill, Rosehill, Takanini, Wattle Downs, Weymouth, Wiri | NZ$836,025 | +5.7% | 176 | -36.2% |
| 西奥克兰该月表列社区：Avondale, Blockhouse Bay, Glen Eden, Glendene, Green Bay, Henderson, Hobsonville, Kelston, Laingholm, Massey, New Lynn, Ranui, Sunnyvale, Swanson, Te Atatu Peninsula, Te Atatu South, Titirangi, West Harbour, Westgate | NZ$951,087 | +3.1% | 132 | -7.0% |
Barfoot & Thompson, September 2026. Changes are calculated from its published September 2025 and 2026 values. This is one agency’s sample, not all Auckland transactions; its focus areas are not individual suburbs. Average prices are affected by the mix of homes sold. The source’s 11 Auckland and surrounding market focus areas are included; Northland is excluded. Islands of the Gulf recorded no September sales, so its price and price change are unavailable, not zero. Small samples, including 20 Central Auckland sales, can produce large movements in averages.
Barfoot & Thompson 2026年9月表；变化由其2025和2026年9月原始值计算。仅该公司样本，不代表全奥克兰；区域划分不等于单一社区。均价受成交结构影响。现已涵盖原表11个奥克兰及周边市场统计片区，未纳入Northland。海湾岛屿9月无成交，价格及价格同比标为“—”，并非房价为零。小样本（例如中心城区仅20套成交）可能造成均价大幅波动。
The source note’s suburb observations remain qualitative hypotheses, pending comparable sales by dwelling type and price band. They do not establish an expected growth ranking.
底稿对这些社区的描述仍是定性假设，需按房型和价格带核验可比成交，不能据此确定未来涨幅排名。
Suburb groupings follow the September 2026 Barfoot suburb report. These are company reporting areas, not council boundaries. Listed suburbs are those shown in that month’s three-bedroom report, which excludes suburbs with fewer than four relevant sales or tenancies; the lists are not exhaustive boundaries. Franklin/Manukau Rural also includes Pokeno and Tuakau outside Auckland’s administrative boundary. The suburb list does not change the monthly all-home sales figures above.
社区归组依据Barfoot 2026年9月社区报告，属于公司统计片区，不是行政区。所列社区仅为该月三房报告中有数据的社区；相关成交或租约不足4笔的社区会被排除，因此不是完整边界清单。Franklin／Manukau Rural还包含奥克兰行政边界外的Pokeno及Tuakau。社区清单仅解释归组，不改变上表月度全部房型成交口径。
5. 2027–2028: Illustrative Scenarios
5. 2027–2028年示意情景
These are Auckland nominal year-end price assumptions from the supplied note. They are not national forecasts, statistically estimated outcomes or guaranteed ranges. No probabilities are assigned. The central illustration is a planning assumption, not the most likely outcome established by evidence.
以下为所提供底稿中的奥克兰名义年底房价假设，不是全国预测、统计估计或保证区间，未赋予概率。“基准示意”用于情景规划，不代表证据已确认其最可能发生。
| Scenario | 2027 | 2028 | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upside | +5% | +7% | Falling rates, improving jobs and confidence |
| Central illustration | +1% | +3% | Gradual recovery and stock absorption |
| Downside | -4% | -2% | High financing costs, weaker jobs and persistent supply |
| 情景 | 2027年 | 2028年 | 成立条件 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 乐观 | +5% | +7% | 利率回落、就业及信心改善 |
| 基准示意 | +1% | +3% | 温和恢复、库存逐步消化 |
| 悲观 | -4% | -2% | 融资成本偏高、就业走弱及供应压力持续 |
Auckland nominal price scenarios · end-2026 = 100
奥克兰名义房价情景 · 2026年底＝100
| Year-end | Upside | Central | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2027 | 105.0 | 101.0 | 96.0 |
| 2028 | 112.4 | 104.0 | 94.1 |
| 年底 | 乐观 | 基准 | 悲观 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 2027 | 105.0 | 101.0 | 96.0 |
| 2028 | 112.4 | 104.0 | 94.1 |
Calculation: index × (1 + annual assumption), compounded. The end-2026 index of 100 is a hypothetical anchor, not an observed value. Values are rounded to one decimal; these paths are not inflation-adjusted.
计算：指数×（1＋年度假设），逐年复利。2026年底100是设定的基准，并非已观测房价；显示四舍五入至一位小数，未扣除通胀。
6. Dwelling Types and Buyer Fit
6. 住宅类型与需求匹配
| Type | Working assessment | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| Two-bedroom townhouse | Potentially strong competition | Comparable supply, total price, parking |
| Three-bedroom townhouse | Mixed prospects | Location, usable layout, outdoor space |
| Small three/four-bedroom standalone | Potential family appeal | Affordability, land, parking |
| Four-bedroom standalone with double garage | Selective opportunities | Location, quality, layout and buyer depth |
| Premium housing | Highly property-specific | Scarcity, views, quality and liquidity |
| Older home on developable land | Negotiation may be possible | Planning, infrastructure, costs and finance |
| 房型 | 初步判断 | 关注点 |
|---|---|---|
| 两房联排 | 同类竞争可能较强 | 供应、总价与停车 |
| 三房联排 | 表现可能分化 | 位置、实用布局与户外空间 |
| 三至四房小独栋 | 可能具家庭自住吸引力 | 承受能力、土地与停车 |
| 四房双车库独栋 | 选择性机会 | 地段、品质、户型及买家深度 |
| 高端住宅 | 个案差异显著 | 稀缺性、景观、品质与流动性 |
| 可开发旧屋土地 | 可能存在议价空间 | 规划、基础设施、成本及融资 |
These are structural research hypotheses, not measured relative performance or future price rankings. A well-priced townhouse may outperform an unaffordable standalone home; local comparable sales matter more than a broad property label.
以上是结构性研究假设，不是已测得的相对表现或未来涨幅排名。定价合适的联排可能优于总价超出承受能力的独栋；本地可比成交比房型标签更重要。
7. Development and Investment Conditions
7. 开发与投资环境
Project viability should stand without relying on price appreciation. Test sale prices 5% and 10% below the appraisal, delayed settlement and cost overruns. Include land, infrastructure, construction, interest and selling costs, and distinguish gross margins from cash available after tax and debt.
项目可行性不应依赖升值。测试售价较估价低5%及10%、交割延迟和成本超支；计入土地、基础设施、建造、利息及销售费用，并区分毛利与税费及还债后的可用现金。
For purchasers and investors, serviceability, long-term holding capacity, vacancy and property quality are more controllable than identifying the precise market bottom. This report assesses national and Auckland markets, not a specific development site.
购房者和投资者更能控制的是还贷能力、长期持有能力、空置及物业质量，而不是猜准市场最低点。本报告研究全国及奥克兰市场，不评估具体开发地块。
8. Indicators to Watch Over the Next 12 Months
8. 未来12个月观察指标
| Indicator | Improvement signal | Risk signal |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates and OCR | Stable or lower financing costs | Persistent increases |
| Inventory | Sustained falls alongside sales | Rising unsold stock |
| Sales | Sustained comparable-period growth | Continued contraction |
| Median days to sell | Shorter periods | Longer periods |
| Consents and completions | Supply absorbed by demand | Concentrated unsold completions |
| Jobs and migration | Stronger incomes and occupancy demand | Job insecurity or weaker population growth |
| Comparable sales | Stable prices with more transactions | Ongoing discounting |
| 指标 | 改善信号 | 风险信号 |
|---|---|---|
| 房贷利率与OCR | 融资成本稳定或下降 | 持续上升 |
| 库存 | 随成交改善持续下降 | 未售库存增加 |
| 成交量 | 同口径持续增长 | 持续萎缩 |
| 中位成交周期 | 缩短 | 延长 |
| 许可与完工 | 需求消化新增供应 | 未售交付集中入市 |
| 就业与移民 | 收入与居住需求增强 | 就业不稳或人口增长走弱 |
| 同类物业成交 | 价格稳定且成交增加 | 持续降价 |
Look for several signals improving together over successive releases. A single month, a change in transaction mix or a seasonal spring uplift is insufficient to confirm a durable recovery.
应看多个指标是否在连续发布中共同改善。单月变化、成交结构改变或春季季节性回升，均不足以证明持续复苏。
9. Conditional Outlook
9. 有条件的前景判断
Late 2026 to early 2027 may remain flat or volatile. Stabilisation later in 2027 becomes more plausible if inflation eases, rates stabilise and employment improves. A modest 2028 recovery is one workable scenario, with substantial variation by location and dwelling type. The timing and scale cannot be established from the current snapshot.
2026年底至2027年初可能继续横盘或波动。若通胀缓解、利率稳定且就业改善，2027年较晚阶段企稳会更具可能性。2028年温和恢复是可讨论情景之一，地区和房型仍可能明显分化；现有快照不能确认复苏时间与幅度。
The stronger test is whether sales rise, stock falls, selling times shorten and financing becomes more affordable together. Until then, use conservative prices and cash-flow assumptions.
更有力的检验是成交回升、库存下降、成交周期缩短与融资可负担性改善能否同时出现。在此之前，应采用保守售价与现金流假设。
10. Sources and Research Boundaries
10. 来源与研究边界
- REINZ September 2026 · 14 Oct 2026
- realestate.co.nz September listings · 1 Oct 2026
- Barfoot & Thompson September regional sales · September 2026 reference period
- RBNZ September OCR decision / CPI context · 2 Sep 2026
- Stats NZ annual home consents · 1 Oct 2026
Based on the supplied “NZ Property Market Outlook (2026–2028)” note dated 14 October 2026. Core sale, interest-rate, consent and agency figures were checked against the linked original releases. Regional year-on-year changes were recalculated. Scenarios and dwelling-type assessments remain assumptions from that note, not independently validated predictions. This is a desk-based study, not a household survey.
以2026年10月14日所提供《新西兰房地产市场前景分析（2026–2028）》底稿为基础；核心成交、利率、许可及中介数值按所列原始发布核对，区域同比重新计算。情景与房型判断仍是底稿假设，并未独立验证其预测能力。本报告属于公开资料研究，不是住户抽样调查。
Different indicators use different reference periods. Missing amounts are left blank. No specific election-policy or suburb-level causal effect has been quantified. This report is not a valuation or personal financial advice.
各指标统计期不同，缺失金额保留空缺。本报告没有量化特定选举政策或社区层面的因果影响，不构成房产估值或个人财务建议。